Promoting energy efficiency in the last four months of 2011

05/10/2011

As forecasted by EVN, under the basic plan, load demand in the last six months of the year will reach 56.949 billion kWh, 8.23% higher than the same period of 2010. Water flow of hydropower reservoirs in the last four months of the year shall reach the frequency of 65%; hydropower reservoirs shall reach the normal water levels at the end of the year.

According to initial estimates, electricity supply in the last 6 months of the year will be abundant since the new sources are expected to be put into operation, while electricity growth is lower than forecasted. However, electricity demand and supply situation has continued to face difficulties as hydropower reservoirs in the North and South are still lacking water although the flooding season has come.

Risk of power shortages still exists

As forecasted by EVN, under the basic plan, load demand in the last six months of the year will reach 56.949 billion kWh, 8.23% higher than the same period of 2010. Water flow of hydropower reservoirs in the last four months of the year shall reach the frequency of 65%; hydropower reservoirs shall reach the normal water levels at the end of the year. According to back-up plans, load demand shall reach 57.880 billion kWh, 10% higher than the same period of 2010. Water flow of hydropower reservoirs shall reach the frequency of 90%; hydropower reservoirs shall reach the normal water levels at the end of the year.

Mr. Pham Le Thanh, General Director of EVN, said that the most difficult in electricity supply is so far, hydropower reservoirs in the North have not had any floods although it is in the peak of the flooding season. In Jul and Aug, the total amount of water flowing to hydropower reservoirs is very low. Therefore, although 2010 was considered a severely droughty year, to date, water levels of Tuyen Quang lake and a number of small hydropower reservoirs in the Central have been even lower than 2010.

On the other hand, an equally worrisome problem is that the gas supply situation will not be stable. Currently, Nam Con Son gas and Cuu Long gas supply an average of 19-20 million m3 of gas to power plants, PM3 Ca Mau gas supplies 3.8 to 4.5 million m3 per day. However, according to PVN, from Sep 15th to 30th, it will be reduce Nam Con Son gas supply, and from Oct 1st to 14th, it will stop supplying PM3 gas to Ca Mau power plant for repair and maintenance. This shall considerably affect the ability to provide electricity for production and activities.

According to Mr. Thanh, if power supply demand occurs according to the basic plan, in the last six months of the year, demand for electricity shall be approximately 56.949 billion kWh. To ensure the supply of electricity, EVN will have to mobilize about 1.104 billion kWh from oil-fired power sources. Basically, the system shall meet the demand if power sources operate smoothly without incident.

If the scenario of the backup plan happens, load demand in the last six months of the year shall be 57.88 billion kWh. Only in the last four months of the year, power demand shall increase 931 million kWh compared to the basic plan, while hydropower output shall decrease by 4,508 billion kWh since the water must be stored for the next year. The proposed solution is to mobilize 3.105 billion kWh from oil-fired power sources.

However, the actual operation in recent times has shown that the oil-fired mode of gas turbines is often unstable and unreliable. The power system has no backup sources, while the operation of power plants, transmission lines and substations are very tense and easy to break down. However, even when the sources operate normally, under the backup plan, the total lack of electricity in the last months of the year shall be up to 467 million kWh, mainly in the South in Sep and Oct.

Mobilization of power sources and promotion of power saving

As oil price is too high, the more production, the more losses EVN has to suffer, so, the use of oil-fired generators is a solution of last resort in case of power shortage. However, the hardest part for EVN is that it has no money to spend on oil. EVN's financial results from 2010 to date have suffered an accumulated loss of over VND 12,000 billion (not to mention exchange rate differences). Accumulated electric bill debts of PVN and TKV from 2010 until now have reached VND 15,000 billion. The working capital of VND 10,000 billion agreed to be lent by banks under the guarantee of the Prime Minister has not yet been disbursed.

According to Mr. Thanh, to ensure the best supply of electricity in the last months of the year, especially in the time of reducing and suspending gas supply, EVN is directing units to focus on accumulating as much water as possible for southern hydropower reservoirs (Tri An, Ham Thuan, Da Nhim, Dai Ninh, Thac Mo) to mobilize for the South in the time of reducing and suspending gas supply; focus on putting new sources (unit 3 of Son La hydropower plant, extended Uong Bi 2, Quang Ninh 1, Hai Phong 1) into stable operation; mobilize oil-fired sources; adjust the plans of fixing a number of units so that they do not coincide with the time of reducing and suspending gas supply; urgently maintain and repair the transmission grid to ensure reliable and safe operation, particularly TBA 500 kV Phu Lam, Tan Dinh, Dak Nong - Phu Lam 500 kV line and Pleiku - Di Linh 500 kV line. The units shall coordinate closely to regulate the electricity supply in case of power shortage.

EVN has also suggested hydropower plants increase the accumulation of water for reservoirs to ensure the availability of units in the time of reducing and suspending gas supply. EVN has also proposed PVN to adjust gas supply reasonably, and minimize the time of repair and maintenance to ensure the availability of all gas-fired and oil-fired units of Ca Mau 1 & 2 power plants, Nhon Trach 1 & 2 power plants in the time of Nam Con Son gas supply suspension...

Mr. Thanh has requested the Ministry of Industry and Trade to ask the Government for a more reasonable electricity price mechanism because the current buying price is higher than the selling price by about VND 100 per kWh. If a wealthy household spends a million VND on electricity per month, it will be naturally subsidized VND 100,000 by the State, while poor households are only subsidized VND 30,000 per month. This is unreasonable. On the other hand, the inefficient use of electricity in many industrial plants and boulevards in big cities is also the cause of pressure on power supply.

Directing this issue, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong has asked EVN and PVN to closely coordinate in the proper repair and maintenance of the air supply system; prepare all plans necessary for the maximum mobilization of resources to meet the load demand. Hydropower plants must be reasonably mobilized to ensure the accumulation of water for the dry season next year.

Deputy Minister has also requested EVN and other units and departments to implement and actively participate in propagating the efficient use of electricity.

According to Deputy Minister, this is only an immediate solution but also an extremely important long-term solution to ensure power supply while the country does not have backup power sources.

By Minh Duc

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