Saturday, 23/11/2024 | 08:28 GMT+7
The global economic recovery will fuel ever greater demand for oil this year,
with higher fuel prices expected to add a 15 percent burden on advanced
economies, the IEA warned on Thursday.
"Under current assumptions for global GDP, oil price
and oil demand, the global oil burden could rise to 4.7 percent in 2011,
getting close to levels that have coincided in the past with a marked economic
slowdown," the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly Oil
Market Report.
"Indeed, the combination of higher prices with a
fragile economic recovery, emerging inflationary pressures and instability in
the Middle East is not a healthy one," it added.
The IEA, the energy policy and monitoring arm of the
34-member Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, estimated the
global oil burden at 4.1 percent in 2010, knocking 0.8 percent of gross
domestic product (GDP) in the OECD countries.
Based on oil at $90 a barrel it estimated the oil burden
would rise by 15 percent to 4.7 percent this year, near the 5.0 percent level
it estimates is likely to trigger recession.
The price for Brent crude has rocketed over $100 a barrel for the first time since September 2008 as unrest in Egypt fuelled concerns of possible disruption to transit through the Suez Canal.
The IEA warned last month that sustained oil prices of $100 a barrel pose a real risk to the world economy.
Oil demand is still expected to grow in 2011 despite the
pace of the global economic recovery tapering off, the IEA said.
After taking into account the latest economic forecasts from
the International Monetary Fund, the IEA said global oil product demand should
reach 89.3 million barrels per day (mbd), an increase of 1.5 mbd year-on-year.
It estimated global oil demand rose by 2.8 mbd to 87.8 mbd
in 2010.
Chinese demand has continued to rise strongly. Oil demand
gathering speed in December with a 17.7 percent increase against the same month
in 2009 to 10.4 mbd, another record.
Efforts by the Chinese government to cool off its breakneck
economic growth make forecasting difficult, but the IEA said it expects Chinese
oil demand to rise by 6.0 percent in 2011 to 9.96 mbd on average.
The IEA raised its demand forecast for OECD countries by 90,000
barrels per day (bpd) to 46.0 mbd in 2011, which is a 0.2 percent decline from
2010 as advanced economies continue to wean themselves off of fossil fuels.
The forecast for non-OECD countries was raised by 60,000 bpd
to 43.2 mbd, an increase of 3.7 percent or 1.6 mbd from 2010 consumption.
Global oil supply rose 0.5 mbd in January to 88.5 mbd, the
IEA said, with OPEC crude supply hitting a two-year high at 29.85 mbd.
Excluding Iraq, which is not subject to OPEC quotas,
production rose to 27.2 mbd, against the agreed production level of 24.845 mbd
target set in December 2008.
Increases by the UAE, Angola, Libya and Venezuela partially
offset slightly lower output from Iran and Nigeria.
Oil stocks in OECD countries declined by two percent in
2,668 mbd in December, with forward demand cover falling to 57.5 days, the
lowest level in the past two years.
energy-daily.com