The United Nations is set to forecast substantial increases in the deployment of renewable energy through to 2050 as clean technologies such as wind and solar power improve and costs fall.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is next week expected to publish a set of 164 scenarios, most of which show a 100 exajoule rise in renewable energy capacity by the middle of the century.

The scenarios form part of a major report into renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation, due to be published on Monday, a draft summary of which has been leaked to Reuters.

According to the news agency, the briefing predicts that increases in renewable energy could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 220 to 560 billion tonnes between 2010 and 2050, compared to 1.53 trillion tonnes of cumulative CO2 which would be released by fossil fuel power plants and industry under a business-as-usual reference scenario.

The report also predicts that renewables should account for a larger share of low carbon energy than nuclear power, even though it was written ahead of the Fukushima nuclear crisis in March, which most experts agree will make such a scenario even more likely.

The report expects investment in renewable energy to reach between $1.36tn and $5.1tn through to 2020, and $1.49tn to $7.18tn from 2012 to 2030. However, real costs would probably be lower because of factors such as the reduced cost of energy technologies.

"The cost of most renewable energy technologies has declined, and significant additional technical advancements are expected," said the draft.

"Further cost reductions are expected, resulting in greater potential for climate change mitigation and reducing the need for policy measures to ensure rapid deployment."

Significantly, the IPCC predicts a continued growth in renewables even without new measures to promote a shift from fossil fuels as part of any global agreement to tackle climate change.

World leaders have failed to reach a multilateral international agreement to combat climate change at annual meetings in Bangkok, Cancun and Copenhagen, and some leaders, including the EU's climate change commissioner Connie Heddegard, suggest that a deal will still not be struck at this year's meeting in Durban, South Africa.

The IPCC is meeting in Abu Dhabi from today until Sunday, and again from 10 to 13 May, to finalise the renewable energy special report and review the group's progress in preparation for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report.

businessgreen.com